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We’re on the brink of disaster

Posted on 27th February 2009 by Benno Hansen

Every outbreak of violence has its own distinctive origins and characteristics. All, however, are driven by a similar combination of anxiety about the future and lack of confidence in the ability of established institutions to deal with the problems at hand.

[…]

The riots that erupted in the spring of 2008 in response to rising food prices suggested the speed with which economically related violence can spread.

[…]

The cost of food is now closely tied to the price of oil and natural gas because petrochemicals are so widely and heavily used in the cultivation of grains.

[…]

zero economic growth in the developing world and rising food prices — and you have a perfect recipe for unrelenting civil unrest and violence.

[…]

Statistical modeling shows that economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening instability if they persist over a one to two year period

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