Acclaimed, critiqued and depressing for its bleak prospect for the future of a humanly habitable biosphere (and the liberal economy as we know it), The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming by David Wallace-Wells (Google Books, Goodreads) has a short chapter on climate conflict. The more recent of the sources for that chapter have not all been mentioned here. Not until now.
- “For every half degree of warming, societies will see between a 10 and 20 percent increase in the likelihood of armed conflict.” Mentioned in a round-up of year 2013.
- “Climate change has elevated Africa’s risk of conflict by more than 10 percent; in that continent, by just 2030, projected temperatures are expected to cause 393,000 additional deaths in battle.” Carleton et al, 2016.
- “From Boko Haram to ISIS to the Taliban and militant Islamic groups in Pakistan, drought and crop failure have been linked to radicalization.” Nett, Rüttinger, 2016.
- “23 percent of conflict in the world’s ethnically diverse countries began in months stamped by weather disaster.” Schleussner et al, 2016.
- “Thirty two countries […] each heavily dependent on farming and agriculture – face ‘extreme risk’ of conflict and civil unrest from climate disruptions over the next thirty years.” VERISK MAPLECROFT, 2015.
- “Heat […] increases violent crime rates.” Schinasi, Hamra, 2017.
- “By 2099, one speculative paper tabulated, climate change in the United States would bring about an additional 22,000 murders, 180,000 rapes, 3.5 million assaults, and 3.76 million robberies, burglaries, and acts of larceny.” Ranson, 2014.
- “The Sicilian Mafia was produced by drought.” Acemoglu et al, 2017.
The book deals with the threats from climate change in twelve “elements of chaos”, where conflict is one, then discusses the human relationship with the impending consequences. It is very well written and documented, but it’s a journalist’s work, not an academic’s. If, for inexplicable reasons, you have not already ordered or borrowed it, check out the writer himself talking about it.